Basketball   |   February 8, 2023

How Do You Bet Successfully in the NBA?

The NBA betting market is just as unpredictable as any other major market. It’s not just the players and coaches who put in long hours during the NBA regular season; bettors and oddsmakers do, too. There are 30 teams, an 82-game regular season, and a two-month postseason.

However, there are ways bettors can gain an advantage when betting on NBA games. There are several profitable basketball betting strategies to consider. We will discuss how you can wager successfully in the NBA. Read on.  

Wager Early

Start betting on NBA games when the markets open to gain an edge. Nothing gets lost in the shuffle in a market as massive as the NBA. The sharpest bettors and betting syndicates compete to snag the value on the NBA sides and totals before the value is drained out. 

Bookmakers modify their lines based on the activity they receive, injury news, and market inefficiencies. The odds become more precise and challenging to beat as the day progresses.

As tip-off times draw near, more information becomes available to oddsmakers and bettors. Therefore, early wagering allows you to capitalize on errors in the original lines released by oddsmakers before they rectify them.

Beating the closing line is one of the best predictors of a long-term winning bettor. Early wagering enables you to produce Closing Line Value and obtain higher odds than the closing line at tip-off.

How Many Possession Totals Will There Be in a Game?

The pace is significant if you want to wager on NBA totals. It’s not just a team’s offensive efficiency but also the number of possessions in a game that might decide how high scoring that game will be. Finding the game’s pace will give you a good idea of how many possessions you may expect in the remaining time.

There are various considerations to make when betting on totals:

  • How does the team want to approach the game?
  • Which team is more likely to force its way on the other?
  • Is the matchup between two teams with differing tempos?
  • Are one or both of these teams returning home after a long road trip?
  • Do the teams as a whole have better offensive output than expected?

You may check how your line stacks up against the market line average with a model. However, you can also assess your advantage based on the recent performance of both teams.

Back the Underdog

There are two types of bettors when it comes to wagering on NBA odds: 

  • Value bettors and 
  • Passion bettors. 

Passion betting is placing wagers on your favorite team regardless of the odds. This method brings the supporter closer to the action and provides a more real desire for their team to do well. However, there are better ways to wager. You should only gamble what you can afford to lose and make informed wagers if you choose to indulge in passion betting.

Value bettors are gamblers who seek value while placing wagers, typically on underdogs. The payout for a winning bet on the underdog is more than on the favorite. Value wagering is strategic and yields more significant returns.

Line Shopping the Odds

Make the most informed NBA wagers possible by comparing odds from multiple sportsbooks. Game lines, futures, and props are common types of NBA odds offered by most online sportsbooks.

The odds on futures bets tend to be the best. However, props and game lines can also be quite lucrative. The ideal time to bet on futures is before the market opens because that is when you find a decent value. We recommend finding an underdog having game odds that have a high likelihood of toppling the favorite.

Take Advantage of NBA Live Betting

The ability to wager on a sporting event once play is underway is a popular betting option.

The odds in a live game fluctuate as events unfold. Punters can profit from the constantly fluctuating odds, the volatility of a game, arbitrage and offsetting opportunities, and even hedging their past wagers.

The algorithms and models used by sportsbooks to generate live lines are accurate as the information they get. We get a lot of new data after the game begins that we didn’t know previously.

These are the ground rules for live betting:

  • Compute live totals for possessions.
  • Live bet on injuries sustained as events unfold.
  • Take advantage of price mistakes owing to incorrect data.
  • Place your wagers throughout commercial breaks and stoppages.
  • Take advantage of volatility in the market; basketball is a game of runs, after all.
  • The secret to basketball betting success lies in mastering rotations.